Expected 2×2 Contingency Outcomes (Per 1,000 Patients)
True Pos (TP)
138
False Pos (FP)
43
False Neg (FN)
12
True Neg (TN)
808
Positive Predictive Value (PPV)
76.2%
Negative Predictive Value (NPV)
98.5%
Likelihood Ratio (+) [LR+]
18.4
Likelihood Ratio (−) [LR−]
0.08
Bayesian Clinical Note: With a prevalence of 15.0%, approximately 3 out of every 4 positive tests represent true disease cases (PPV = 76.2%). If your system were deployed in general screening where prevalence drops to 1%, PPV would plummet to ~15%, causing over 5 false alarms for every real patient detected!